President Obama killed (in a good way) the State of the Union address. Marco Rubio, the GOP’s so-called new golden boy (right) perhaps killed any chance for a nomination in 2016. Polar opposites.
The president rolled and according to ‘polls’, 53% of the nation liked his speech. Hmmm. I have no contradicting data, but 53% is way too low. The speech was good. In fact, I believe more than 53% because the speech was so populist. He hit almost every popular mark… workers, women, immigrants, middle class, students, gun victims and gun opponents (now the country’s majority). Definitely a populist speech.
But here’s some reality. Most of what the president asked for, won’t happen. And he knows that. He also knows that there will be attacks on the speech and that many will claim that he is only rolling out a liberal agenda. True. But if you think that there wasn’t more to the speech, my friends, then its you who are shortsighted.
The speech was intended to position… naah, let’s wait for that.
Ok. No doubt the president won the fiscal cliff crisis, the losers being the republicans, with the ultimate losers being the targeted tea party. Many people still fail to see what is happening in the government at large, but within the GOP and its parasitic tea party in particular.
For years, the tea party has used race rage to focus on president Obama, and the republicans have used that to obstruct any plans the government would try to help the American people survive the financial crisis, created mainly by the foolish economic excesses of the republicans themselves. The tea party organized against the president because any success he had, would undermine the theology that black people are incapable of running this domain, one time reserved only for old white men. Obama’s success will eventually open the flood gates and what was always a clever lie, will become true, “Anyone can seek to become president of the United States”.
The republicans took this powerful ally and they used them fully, and at the same time, foolishly. The tea party was also using the GOP, by latching on as a parasite with the intention to eventually take over its host (well, not at first). And the GOP waited a very long time to realize that the dog was no longer wagging the tail, but just the opposite. The move inside the GOP to rid itself of the parasite, started before the re-election of president Obama, but it came into the open immediately at Obama’s re-election. Even then, many failed to read the tea leaves. Only now, is the media seeing something of the picture, that there is a civil war going on in the republican party… a pretty nasty war.
What they have not seen, is how it is rolling out, and what they have not understood is Obama’s position in it. Few seem to realize that Obama and Boehner has had a partnership going on for a long time now, ever since Boehner recognized that not only the GOP, but the nation was moving in the direction of political disaster. The tea partyers to say again, are not professional politicians. They are ideologues… and not very smart ones at that. But worse, they have no sense of compromise… something every politician has to have. “My way or the highway” carries you down the road to chaos. And that’s exactly where the republican party was heading.
If Mitt Romney had won, hell could have broken loose. Either he would be forced to follow the tea party, or the presidency would face a revolt from his own ranks. I’m not sure what Romney would have done. I know that he would not like to follow tea party policies (which would turn this country back by decades), but I don’t know if he was man enough to buck them. He certainly didn’t know how to tame them. Whatever happened, a Romney president was going to be really bad.
If Romney won, the tea party would have taken control of the republican party and moderate politicians would be forced out. The system works (I can hear the snickers already, “Really Louis, the system works?”) in America only because there isn’t all that huge a gap between both parties. But the differences had been becoming a little more radicalised over the years, but because of Obama’s blackness, it became extremely toxic.
So Obama had to win. His win was the spark that ignited the fuel within the GOP and it wasn’t too long that Boehner made his moves to oust the parasite. But to do so, he needed Obama’s help. And both worked together to forge a fiscal cliff deal that gave Obama a kind of symbolic victory. But what was also happening, was that Boehner seemed like a reasonable rational opposition, while the tea partners were screaming their heads off. By the time they recognized what was happening, Boehner was firmly entrenched.
Now he knows who is who, and they also know their own fate. Its just a matter of time before the tea party is ousted. It will be too late for the republicans for 2016, and it might be too late for them already for 2014. Hence we see changing of positions (Rubio for one. But he’s not going to happen). Now we see some republicans looking to work with the president. Now we see softening of the tones. And those who are still shrieking, their time is short.
So how does the president fit in? The GOP must appear to be an opposition but not to be merely obstructionist. They realize that white males are no longer enough to guarantee an election. They recognize that the marginalisation of so many different sectors have now made them the minority and the only way back is to reach out, not only to the sectors but to the president. Merely reaching out to the sectors isn’t enough. Their now wholesale support on immigration is seen as totally hypocritical. Their motives are clear. The only one who can cleanse them is the president.
The GOP is in a weakened state and some liberals are asking that the president drives a stake into the republicans heart. But the president has made it clear he has no intention of doing so. He recognizes that anything like that will lead to something akin to civil war with all those 2nd Amendment nuts running to the hills, very armed. He knows that the next democratic president would face an army he cannot trust. The government would enact further totalitarian measures, and the America we know would soon disappear forever.
He knows its better to deal with a strong near center conservative party than a far right bunch of lunatics. If the shoe was on the other foot, not sure the GOP would be similarly generous.
But there is more. Just Obama’s very demeanor is driving the tea party into a frothing frenzy, and more and more some of them are losing control of themselves. Saw some of that during the fiscal cliff negotiations. What were Americans response to the lunatic ‘Lets go over the cliff’? Certainly not admiration. And what do you think will happen during the ‘sequestration’? Same thing. Some tea partyists are already shouting for a government shutdown. Really?
Months ago, even Newt Gingrich who did that twice during Clinton years, is telling them its a preposterous idea. Why? Because the GOP lost support nationally leading to an easy Clinton win over Dole in 1996. And Newt Gingrich knows that. Shutting down government would not benefit the republicans and so they better play nice with the president.
So as to the State of the Union. Many items Obama mentioned in his speech, he knows he will not get, he will have to compromise… but in a way that makes both he and Boehner look good, while embarrassing the tea party element. That strengthens Boehner’s grip on the republican party and marginalizes the tea party more and more.
Also the president is painting both the moderate republicans and tea party into a corner… anti-worker, anti-women, as supplicants to the NRA and corporate greed, pro-war, anti-middle class, anti-student. The moderates will hope to effect change, the other side will be defiant to the end. The image of the republican party will take some time to scrub clean.
So it doesn’t matter if Obama gets anything major in gun control (he won’t), but he will still be victorious. It doesn’t matter if he gets pay parity for women (he likely will), or better schooling (a little), or better terms for those who want to avoid the housing crisis (a little), or on immigration (a lot), or a $9 minimum wage. He will get some things, he will lose some things. But the republican party will lose more and the tea party will be exterminated.
The price for opposing Obama’s populist agenda will be paid in the future.
PS: Want to see what’s happening and where this is going? Both the republican party and the tea party gave responses to the president’s State of the Union address. The split is now public.
Fox carried the republican’s response, but not the tea party’s. Fox has chosen its side in the fight.