My comments on Mrs. Clinton last week seems to have stirred up something. Many of you choose not to comment here but send me an email. A few were suprised that I played my cards so early with such a bold prediction. I may eat crow in November 2008 but I will stick to my guns on this one. Actually I will take it a step further. The Republicans are divided about which candidate they like. I think Mrs Clinton is to one person that will galvanize the Republicans around their nominee for the presidency. This brings me to another point. Who really votes? Democrats or Republicans.
In recent elections the data “tends” to point to more Republicans practicing their right to vote than Democrats. They also say that the Republicans do a better job getting out their voters than Democrats. I think there is more to this than the data we are presented. There are the “red” states (Republican) and the “blue” states (Democratic). The red states tend to have a smaller population however they have more electoral colleges. Now in the red states the people who vote has it marked on the their calendar. For them it is an event. In the blue state urban cities it is a footnote on the calendar between taking the kids to after-school events, the movie, work etc. So those blue states that have low voter turnout by the Democrats automatically go to the Republicans because their voters turn out. This adds to the red states the Republicans have already won. Sounds confusing…bottom line is the Democrats already are behind when the elections starts and catching up means their voters need to get out. The also must win 1-2 red states. See the Al Gore presidential run where he won the majority of the individual votes but not the election.
Now let me talk about the personality contest. People continue to ask why did George Bush win his second term. I have one answer. Kerry had the personally of a brick wall. Everytime you say George Bush campaigning he was shaking hands and hugging people. Everytime you saw Kerry he was waving from a distance. No connection to voters. Kerry “dusted” out Bush in every single debate. He used all the right big words in the debates. Bush could not put two good sentences together. Remember the “Wanna Buy some wood” comment Bush made when Kerry accused him of owning a “timber” forest in a North West state. Right after each debate Bush would make fun of himself. I think most of us can relate to someone like that. Kerry had the word “flip flop” stick to him like a sore thumb through the whole election. Now picture the master politician Bill Clinton being called a “flip flopper”. Bill Clinton would have called Jay Leno, appeared on his show wearing “flip flops” and everyone would have laughed at it. The issue would be “dead” at this point. Personally plays a major role on how people vote. They vote for people who they can relate to even though the may hate some of their policies. Many you may disagree with me but Bush is personable guy regardless of his policies. In fact his constant mis-use of the English language makes him more likable as many of us make mistakes. Bill Clinton was the Master at being personable. Mr. Clinton is trying her best to change the perception of her personality. She is laughing more. Making a few more jokes. Lets see if she can win the personality contest against the front runners on the other side.